FlavioZappi’s Blog

Tour de France prediction…

2009

Final Classification: 1)Contador

2)Slheck

3)Armstrong

4) Wiggins

5) Frank Shleck

Final stage report: Cavendish winner with one leg.

Final stage Champs Elisee Paris: just a proforma, Cavendish should win with one leg.

Stage 20 Results: The most boring result ever on TDF, well done to Garate, but where are those apical confrontation we used to see at this kind of stages? And what is Andy looking back every 2 seconds? if is worried about is  brother Frank why not racing in a tandem? Sorry maybe I’m in a bad mood because of  Di Luca positive at the Giro, but I ‘m used to see Merckx, Hinault, Fuente, Fignon, Lemond challenged by great climbers from Spain or Colombia and yellow jersey chasing between climbs without any “domestiques” to defend there leadership. My verdict for this stage as for all the TDF is negative.

Stage 20 The final verdict! Ventoux 18km of pain averaging 10% my friend ex pro Andrea Chiurato went last week and rode up and he took him 1hour and 15minutes and he said before you get to the “pelata” no tree area on the top the climb kills you with long strait in the middle of the woods. Anyway i cant see anybody to challenge Alberto Contador other then Andy Shleck , maybe the battle for 3/4/5 position will get 1/2position  involved too, let see.

Stage 19 Cav  again and Hush second boring.

Stage 19 Easy start of the stage 19 but with a sting in the final part with 2cat climb and the finish at the end of the descent. So will we see courageous riders attacking Alberto or Lance? Will be a long break away to win the stage and among the protagonists Nibali will attack in descend?

Stage 18 Results: Contador amazing performance beating Cancellara increasing his leadership on GC.

Stage 18 Annency 40km tt Prediction: Wiggins, Contador, Armstrong and Cancellara. This is not a normal tt, and a the end of TDF is more what you left in your legs then be a specialist, nothing specials should happen to the GC, lets wait for Mont Ventoux Shleck last chance.

Stage 17 Results: the queen of the TDF did the show  that everybody were waiting for…1 question: Is Contador really smart or really stupid? why killing your team mate at 2/3k to the end of climb? what if he punched and what about stage winning for Kloden (dropped by Alberto) after working for him so much? Anyway deserved win by Frank Shleck (and bro).

Stage17 the big day at TDF 2009 with 5 climb 4 of 1stcat and 1 of 2nd cat, after today dig from Andy Shleck, I’m expecting fire works tomorrow, they start on climbing and if anybody wants to win as to attack tomorrow to try to isolate Contador, so Andy, Carlos and Bradley …..is your stage!

Stage 16 Results: Was Pellizzotti day ..a bit, actually big day for the “maillot a pois” passing at both climbs top position and now securing leadership for the climb classification. The spaniard Astarloza meriting to win the stage for his determination and wiliness.

Stage 16 Prediction: Well… two very  long and not very steep climbs and after the last one 30km of descend, I don’t think will be a mayor situation between the leaders because the day after (Wednesday) there will be one of the harder stage with 5 climbs and the last (la Colombiere) at 15km, great opportunity for anybody to challenge for the yellow jersey. Is tomorrow Pellizzzotti’s day?

Monday 20 July 2009 2nd rest day at the TDF

Stage 15 Results: Contador “el matador” perfect attack maximised energy for time gain almost a computer game! Andy no far so was Sastre and incredible Wiggins, Lance did suffer the speed obviously because his age and characteristics, should be better for him longer and harder stages with more then one climbs, so plenty of opportunity til the end of the race.

Stage 15 Prediction: Verbier up hill finish 1cat in “Suisse” should be Andy Shleck , one of my favourite, but I don’t think there will be much distance between the top guns because up to the last climb the race is pretty easy, very interesting to see if Sastre is coming out from “letargo”.

Stage 14 Great break away! , and beautiful 10k solo by Ivanov. Did anybody notice how many enemies George Hincapie had in the peloton? Garmin, Agr (obviously) etc, something make me think that be friend with Lance is not lucky.

Stage 14 prediction: Rolling hill stage again 2 3cat hills break away as Sunday will be up hill finish on 1cat col de Verbier, there the big contenders will save energies.

Stage 13 Fantastic ride by Haussler, but I’m getting worried by the lack of attacking between the GC contender (i.e. Evans, sastre, Sleck and Wiggins), I hope they not going to wait loo late.

Stage 13 Prediction:  time for the big name to show there faces (or legs) and with 3 climb 1cat, 3cat,2 cat in 50 km a strong attack can be very important. Andy Shleck and Contador is time for you (with Sastre maybe)!

Stage 12 I’m so please to see that the team trains can be beaten by a strong break away riders! well done Sorensen and ….be careful give easy minutes to Pellizzotti.

Stage 12 Prediction Nervous stage again with many little climbs and rolling hills, this one should be the one for a long break away because the next day stage 13 we are going back to the mountains, therefore the big team are saving energies for late stages.

Stage 11 Great sprint again for Mark and is poker at this Tour de France and is not over considering the poor strategies of the other team, leaving the stage on plate for a man like Mark and is team. By the way why is Cancellara doing a “domestique” role today? Is probably the best “finisseur in the wordl and is taking 20 bottle of water for the team and is taking A. Sleck out of the wind in the last 30k?

Stage 11 Another intermediate stage for the main GC rider, I’m guessing now a stage with break away.

Stage 10 Cavendish tris winner at the tour with a little disrespect to the opponent when after the finish line he polish is green glasses?!  Main issue of the race was the radio less story which create a bit of antagonism and the race race went on easy pace for most of the day, great for the show!!

Stage 10 Bastille day 14 july let me guess…..a french ryder will win. By th way no radios today what do you think? I like it.

Stage 9 Long break away with Fedrigo out sprinting Pellizzotti who lost but gain lots of point for the mountain jersey competition.

Stage 9 Prediction: Saint-Gaudens Tarbes 160.5 km with Col D’Aspin and Tourmalet in succession and at the bottom of the Tourmalet 40km to the finish. Contador, Andy Shleck and Sastre should be on the attack, 40k to the end is a lot especially if is going to be head wind. In any case Lance will be in the best position leaving Evans and the Garmin chasing…

New prediction for GC:

1) Contador  40%

2) Andy Shleck 30%

3) Sastre 15%

4) Armtrong 10%

5) Wiggins 2.5%/Menchov2.5%

Stage 8 Prediction ok Luis Leon Sanchez former National TT of Spain winner today, no major changes on GC.

Stage 8 Prediction : 1cat climb in the middle of the stage to far away to create any important action. I’m guessing will be a 40/50 people with the chance a last few km solo action from one of those tt specialists free to race for a day.

Stage 7 Prediction :Barcellona-Andorra 224km finish on steep climb is the day for Alberto Contador? The most interesting thing tomorrow will be to see if Cancellara dieting as made an effect on steep climbing. Riis( Cancellara DS) did the same in the 90s winning the TDF, loosing 7kg and keeping the power.

Stage 7 Winner  was Feillu younger brother of the french sprinter with a long break away of 8 riders including Nocentini who got yellow jersey as result.

Very interesting dig of Contador at the last 2km gaining 30sec to the main GC conterders (inc Armstrong).

Stage 6 Gerona-Barcellona very nervous course no 1 metre of flat again with side wind, will for sure provide show for us. I predict again break away if not the winner will be one of those who are usually strong on 1 day events like Kirchen or Ballan.

Stage 6 Winner Thor Hushvodt, great timing in a sprint of a small peloton.

Stage 5 Le Cap d’Agde-Perpignan

Stage5 Winner Voeckler solo.

Stage 5 Prediction is: 2 4cat climbs followed by 30k of side wind, it could create more echelon, small group away, Liquigas or outsider in it.

Stage 4 Marseille-Marseille Team Time Trial

Astana as predicted is winning stage4, followed by Garmin and Saxobank

Leader GC after stage4 Cancellara by.22 of a second to Armstrong

Flavio’s comment:

Average speed was just over 50km/h, I think with those narrow roads and many corners a more short and compact team would made a faster time, you would not have the “elastic” effect and therefore sharper response to the speed and more cover on the side-wind sections. At the Giro 1981 we did over 51km/h using the chain-gang style, ok the stage was shorter but, 80% of the rider were new pro, there were no world champions and……. we rode with steel road bikes.

Stage 3 Marseilles-La Grande Motte

Mark again as predicted by every one.  Free advert for HTC phone !!

GC prediction no change.

Leader GC after stage 3 Cancellara

TTT prediction for tomorrow:

1) Astana

2) Garmin

3) Columbia

Stage 2 Monaco-Brignoles 187k (flat)

Cavendish winner of stage 2, like Cancellara impressive power (explosive)

Leader GC after stage 2 Cancellara

Prediction for GC:

1) Contador  40%

2) Andy Shleck 30%

3) Sastre 15%

4) Armtrong 10%

5) Cancellara 5%

Stage1 Monaco-Monaco 15k tt

Cancellara winner of stage 1, impressing power like superman!

Leader GC after stage 1 Cancellara

Prediction for GC:

1) Contador  40%

2) Andy Sleck 30%

3) Sastre 15%

4) Armtrong 10%

5) Cancellara 5%

July 5, 2009 Posted by flaviozappi | Tour the France | 19 Comments